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Written by Steve Meyers
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Friday, 27 August 2010 12:44 |
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David Rosenberg has provided his typically succinct summary of the day's heavy dataflow, starting with the GDP number, parsing though Bernanke's speech, and concluding with a broad overview of where the market is heading, which is now so disconnected form a bond-implied FV in the upper 700s it is no longer funny.
On GDP:
GDP BETTER THAN EXPECTED, BUT …
Boy oh boy, 1.6% never felt so good. Bonds are getting hammered and the stock market is surging on a GDP growth number that basically represents stagnation in real per capita terms. But the consensus was looking for 1.4% and the “whispered” number was actually below 1%, so for Mr. Market, at least on a day-to-day basis, it is all about how things do benchmarked against expectations. The data were weak but not a disaster and so we are seeing a temporary bounce in yields and equity prices, which likely won’t last for very long once Q3 GDP estimates grind down from their current 2.5% forecast to something closer to 0% — or even negative — by the time the first report is published at the end of October. READ MORE
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