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Home Our Perspective Rosie's Observations On The GDP Number, On Bernanke's Address, And On The Market(ZH)
Rosie's Observations On The GDP Number, On Bernanke's Address, And On The Market(ZH) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Friday, 27 August 2010 12:44

David Rosenberg has provided his typically succinct summary of the day's heavy dataflow, starting with the GDP number, parsing though Bernanke's speech, and concluding with a broad overview of where the market is heading, which is now so disconnected form a bond-implied FV in the upper 700s it is no longer funny.

On GDP:

GDP BETTER THAN EXPECTED, BUT …

Boy oh boy, 1.6% never felt so good. Bonds are getting hammered and the stock market is surging on a GDP growth number that basically represents stagnation in real per capita terms. But the consensus was looking for 1.4% and the “whispered” number was actually below 1%, so for Mr. Market, at least on a day-to-day basis, it is all about how things do benchmarked against expectations. The data were weak but not a disaster and so we are seeing a temporary bounce in yields and equity prices, which likely won’t last for very long once Q3 GDP estimates grind down from their current 2.5% forecast to something closer to 0% — or even negative — by the time the first report is published at the end of October. READ MORE

 


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