Market Update

Short and Poor!

|2010-09-03 08:58:23

Ugh! Thanks for your good work, Steve.

Hopefully we'll put in some sort of top here mid-morning.

Ron Rebner

|2010-09-03 09:17:07

Steve. It may be that the resistance has held and repelled market back. IF that is the case and wave B has started, how much might the pullback be in wave B? Thanks and travel safe.

SteveM

|2010-09-03 09:38:02

Now is the time to get the heels dug in (IMO) I think we will be rolling over later next week so I am not sure how deep we go here. The more important point is we are within days of a substantial selloff with slim upside and Slim may have left the building.

Ron Rebner

|2010-09-03 09:22:04

Looks like early volume is decent but not robust.

Mark Sorensen

|2010-09-03 09:36:46

Steve - what are your latest targets for the late Oct. early Nov. timeframe? I'm trying to position myself just to get out of this thing without taking a huge loss - I just want to get out and get physical gold. What odds would you give for a move to S&P 900 by then? How will it ever get there when Ben Bananake keeps dropping liquidity bombs at 1040 and 1010? BTW, I just loaded up on more shorts this morning at 1102 - I don't think it will get past 1110.

Businesswise I still don't see a slowdown. I thought new orders were starting to fall off in the last few weeks but then I got hit with rash of large orders this week. It never seems to end.

SteveM

|2010-09-03 10:29:44

Mark,

I give good odds to us taking out the 1040 and 1010 areas in the next few weeks which should lead to a very quick collapse to 875. Holding it up for this election will do nothing for the incumbents chances so I think we will go down in spite of the election. Europe can be the trigger?

Mark Sorensen

|2010-09-03 11:31:30

OK - I'm determined to hold through about Nov. 10. If I see S&P 900 I'm done and getting out of the dollar. I think it would be the most contrarian thing ever to see the market actually break below 1000 S&P at this point!

Short and Poor! - re:

|2010-09-03 09:59:49

Mark Sorensen wrote:

Businesswise I still don't see a slowdown. I thought new orders were starting to fall off in the last few weeks but then I got hit with rash of large orders this week. It never seems to end.

Mark, what line of business are you in?

Mark Sorensen

|2010-09-03 10:23:46

Manufacturing - I own Atlas Casters - www.atlascasters.com Started it from nothing and no bank EVER gave me one dollar to help me start my business. My customer base is quite diversified at this point but I mainly sell to OEMs in the semiconductor industry (check out the stock of VEECO for instance). Basically I sell to world class companies who know how to compete globally. They serve the global consumer and their earnings are real whereas the earnings of US banks are a farce. Companies that sell to the US consumer only (banks) should be completely in the tank.

Keith - ECRI may soon call for a double-dip recession

|2010-09-03 10:15:41

http://moneymorning.com/2010/08/03/ecri/

Mars - SP500 opening hourly candlestick

|2010-09-03 10:20:10

The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an advance and in the star position, hence its name. A Shooting Star can mark a potential trend reversal or resistance level. The candlestick forms when prices gap higher on the open, advance during the session and close well off their highs. The resulting candlestick has a long upper shadow and small black or white body. After a large advance (the upper shadow), the ability of the bears to force prices down raises the yellow flag. To indicate a substantial reversal, the upper shadow should relatively long and at least 2 times the length of the body. Bearish confirmation is required after the Shooting Star and can take the form of a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume.

Mars - FRI: Prodrome Model Alert

|2010-09-03 11:02:38

For the first time since TUE AUG 24, this model is generating a signal.

PRODROME MODEL 2010 YTD 25 W--6 L

It is now after 12

0PM EST, and this model is issuing an ALERT.
The Prodrome Model attempts to identify the likelihood for looming weakness in the SP500 over the short-term. Sometimes the SP500 will begin declining the same day the signal is generated, but more commonly, the weakness comes in the following days. The model expects the opportunity to close "short" positions at a price lower than today's SP500 closing price.
As I write, the SP500 is currently @ 1098.23
Pending signals: none
As with most things in life, this model is capable of achieving both success and failure. It was created and continues to be tracked because I find it interesting...........it's that simple!

Mark	\|2010-09-05 08:34:52

Any more intell on the Prodrome model? this is a new one for me...thx

Anonymous - Bernake shut down large institutions

|2010-09-03 11:39:24

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/2/bernanke-testifying-crisis-inquiry-panel/

Ron Rebner

|2010-09-03 13:04:53

Volume is low, not much behind today's rally.

Shin - Dollar

|2010-09-03 13:17:01

Steve,

Dollar is looking more bearish. If it breaks 82-81.90, I think it will head down a lot further. Do you think it will boost the markets up?
Thanks

David Hall

|2010-09-04 02:50:33

I agree the dollar looks bearish long term but if we see the markets tank I would expect the usd index to rise. Also the euro is not out of the woods yet so we could see more problems arise out of europe...

Ron Rebner

|2010-09-03 14:07:01

On The Ever Increasing Inconsistencies In Reported Economic Data

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ever-increasing-inconsistencies-reported-economic-data

Bryan - Market Take

|2010-09-03 15:30:34

For those interested, here is a different take on the market from Bob Hoye who is a deflationist but also believes gold will perform particularly well: http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/1756

Ron Rebner

|2010-09-03 15:33:30

Here we go again with big moves on low volume. Volume was weak, especially on the NASDAQ. The A/D's were favorable at about 3 or 4 to 1 but much more favorable on volume. The DOW closed right on the 200 DMA and the other markets are within 1%, except for the NASDAQ which is about 2% below.

CG	\|2010-09-04 15:50:25

5 Doomsday Scenarios for the U.S. Economy http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/110581/5-doomsday-scenarios-for-the-us-economy. Interesting to see an article like this on Yahoo since most people seem to want to stick their heads in the sand and live life as usual.

Matt - Been thinking about the unemployment #

|2010-09-05 10:56:52

I don’t think the unemployment checks will end. Yes that’s right. The checks will continue for a very long time. Congress just extended the benefits with out an ending date this time. The fed’s will continue to print money and give to the unemployed in trade for votes. The unemployed will then stop looking for work and be dropped off the unemployment list this will cause the unemployment figures to drop making people think that all is getting better. They will continue to get their checks from the gov. and vote for the politicians that are giving them their checks. It’s very simple. You will start to see this as we head to the elections in Nov.

NV - Looming Obama Depression- interesting points at th

|2010-09-05 11:45:37

http://townhall.com/columnists/KevinMcCullough/2010/09/05/the_looming_obama_depression

NV - LABOR DAY DEVOTIONAL

|2010-09-06 07:04:16

Labor Day Rest- Rachel Olsen

"And God blessed the seventh day and made it holy, because on it he rested from all the work of creating that he had done." Genesis 2:3 (NIV)

In 1882 U.S. cabinet maker Peter McGuire introduced his idea for a new holiday saying, "Let us have a festive day during which a parade through the streets of the city would permit public tribute to American Industry." A dozen years later President Cleveland signed a bill into law designating the first Monday in September "Labor Day." For many Americans today is a day off from work, a chance to cook-out and hang-out in the lingering warm weather of summer.

A day off from labor, however, was not a new concept when McGuire suggested his holiday. The concept of a day of rest was first declared by the Lord in Genesis. In illustration, God rested the seventh day after creating the world and He deemed the day of rest holy (Gen. 2:2-3). He didn't call it Labor Day - He called it the Sabbath.

Sabbath is a not a day of tribute to workers,[u] it's a day of tribute to their Maker. It's a day to rest your body while renewing your mind by making the focus of the day your Maker and your relationship with Him. In the Jewish tradition, the Sabbath is the focal point of the week - not just a day of laundry or list-making to gear back up for the week ahead. The Jewish people spent three days preparing for Sabbath, and three days reflecting on what they had learned or encountered of Go...

PastorTim

|2010-09-06 07:35:41

Thanks for sharing the devotional NV. Have a great day of rest! PT

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