Global Perspectives: Keeping Believers Informed, Equipped, and Prepared

Home Our Perspective Fed To Ramp Up Stocks In September Thanks To Front-Loaded POMO Schedule (ZH)
Fed To Ramp Up Stocks In September Thanks To Front-Loaded POMO Schedule (ZH) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Thursday, 09 September 2010 10:05

It is no secret that money paid to Primary Dealers via the Fed's POMO monetization tends to immediately find its way in risky assets, most notably stocks. Yet one of the major complaints against the Fed's QE Lite by the permabull brigade, is that the amount of weekly monetization is just far too low to make much of a dent on stocks, even assuming massive leverage and the deranged computerized feedback loop algos that take the smallest move and make a tsunami out of it. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, the Fed will make sure that over the next three weeks hedge fund LPs are happy, that redemption requests are sparse, and that September wil be an up month for all those levered to the hilt and chasing beta: for September/October the Fed is now expected to monetize double the amount of bonds in Aug/Sept. In other words, the Primary Dealers, aka Fed Lites, will be using tens of billions of brand new Fed printed money to chase the highest beta stocks they can find. And they will most certainly be using made up government data to facilitate this pursuit.

READ MORE
Comments
Search RSS
Only registered users can write comments!
TitanTrader  - Folly |2010-09-09 10:23:50
We are issuing about $165 billion per month in T's just to fund our deficit.

How POMO of $10 billion per month makes a difference make no sense to me.

If I were still advising clients I can't believe I could make that sale.

Hey Joe, we need to buy bonds because instead of issuing $165 billion per month after POMO it's only $155 billion.

Maybe it's me?
Keith  - Then why go short now? |2010-09-09 11:00:55
"for September/October the Fed is now expected to monetize double the amount of bonds in Aug/Sept."

If this is true and trading volume remains anemic, then going short doesn't make sense, does it? I am a bear on the fundamentals of the economy and am looking for a short entry point, but I keep hearing in my mind 'don't fight the fed'. It seems like to go short now you almost have to completely rely on a big negative event to occur in order to overcome the Fed's intervention, and that is something really hard to predict imho.

Thoughts anyone?
Matt  - Fed's control of the markets |2010-09-09 11:34:33
Fed's will continue to control the stock market. I mean look at the flash crash in May. That was such a fixed move. And this article and quote: September/October the Fed is now expected to monetize double the amount of bonds in Aug/Sept. In other words, the Primary Dealers, aka Fed Lites, will be using tens of billions of brand new Fed printed money to chase the highest beta stocks they can find. And they will most certainly be using made up government data to facilitate this pursuit.

All Window dressing for the Elections.
Remember the Fed's can and do paint any picture they want..
Ron Rebner |2010-09-09 11:48:36

Keith. I think there are a few reasons to consider having a core short position. First, there is a huge gap between the value of the stock market and the state of the economy. At some point, that gap will be closed. We don't know when or how but, it will happen. Second, the upside is limited even with the PPT, as the mutual funds have no cash and redemptions are continuing (see earlier posts on this site). Another is what you said, an event. There are a significant number of land mines out there, including Europe's debt problems, a terrorist event, war in the middle east, China's real eatate bubble, etc. Last but not least, are the technicals that SteveM knows and follows so well as well as his trading instincts. He believes we are close to a top. I hope this helps. Good luck.
Mark Sorensen |2010-09-09 11:04:56
Steve - do you still believe the US stock market is bigger than the govt/Fed? All I know is that I just want out. I'm praying for just 950 now. I will never do anything with the "market" again.
Matt  - I respectfully Disagree with Steve here. |2010-09-09 11:38:13
The Fed's are the Markets. In bed with big banks like Goldman Sachs and others. It's a wold wide scam. The Fed's and big banks are bigger than the markets. IMO
Matt
SteveM |2010-09-09 11:17:47
The market is bigger than the Fed in the long term. Short term with all the shenanigans and low volume, they can greatly influence the markets but they have to pick their points. They cannot drive it up but will attempt to hold it up until they have an excuse or an event. Why sell? Our turn points have worked great and I believe in them. It may give us another drop and subsequent rally but we are trading the aggressive positions and leaving the core on. They are running out of bullets and soon the hedge funds will be using these days to sell into this artificial strength.
Bryan  - re: |2010-09-09 11:31:26
Mark Sorensen wrote:
Steve - do you still believe the US stock market is bigger than the govt/Fed? All I know is that I just want out. I'm praying for just 950 now. I will never do anything with the "market" again.


Listen to this and each new one posted every Friday...he explains things clearly and sees the much bigger picture (i.e. Dow down and gold up):

http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/1756
SteveP |2010-09-09 11:38:03
Denninger: A Tale Of Market Disconnects.
http://market-ticker.org/

Interesting to see what Visa and MC charts look like, which maybe more representative of true spending and the real economy. Assuming anything left in "The Markets" is real!

Keith  - Strategy |2010-09-09 11:47:08
First of all, thank you SteveM for everything you do and for everything you share with us on this website. I have been a reader for many months now.

Anyway, so perhaps the best strategy is to trade the swings while holding onto your core position (if you have one, I don't unfortunately) which I guess is pretty much what you have been saying and doing all along. I definitely agree that the market is bigger than the Fed in the long term, but of course it is so hard to define how long that 'long term' will be.

Thanks again and all the best...
SteveM |2010-09-09 14:53:44
Thanks Keith! We have had our core on since April which seems like a lifetime and now are trading aggressive positions to help out our core and eventually we will hit a big one with those positions.
NV  - New lightbulbs made in China |2010-09-09 11:59:48
http://www.gainspainscapital.com/

Reddit! Del.icio.us! Mixx! Free and Open Source Software News Google! Live! Facebook! StumbleUpon! TwitThis Joomla Free PHP
 

Disclaimer

The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles and newsletters on this website are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither GrainBelt Commodities, LLC. nor Steven R. Meyers shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

Global Perspective Audience