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Home Our Perspective NFP -20,000, Non-Seasonally Adj Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6 & 18% (ZH)
NFP -20,000, Non-Seasonally Adj Unemployment Rate (U3 And U6) Surges To Record 10.6 & 18% (ZH) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Steve Meyers   
Friday, 05 February 2010 09:57

The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7. READ MORE

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Ron Rebner |98.208.181.xxx |2010-02-05 10:06:08
Note the non seasonally adjusted rate is 10.6%, a .9% increase from December. More lipstick.
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ChuckL |67.238.59.xxx |2010-02-05 12:58:07
Okay folks. Explain this one. The way I read this, the December unemployment numbers got revised to be worse than first reported, and that is making the January numbers look like a drop? Gee, should we feel good about that until they revise the January numbers to feed us the February placebo?
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Mark Sorensen |66.241.87.xxx |2010-02-05 13:08:19
I'm 100% short now with all positions in the green (they keep gunning IYR so it's not that easy). Hope to go over the waterfall next week.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles and newsletters on this website are provided as a general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither GrainBelt Commodities, LLC. nor Steven R. Meyers shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.