Some solid, big-pictures perspectives from David Rosenberg, comparing then and now:

The media are all over the fact that today is the one-year anniversary of the 12-year low in the stock market reached on  March 9, 2009, when the S&P sagged to that diabolical 666 level. (Funny how nobody celebrates October 9, which is the anniversary of the 1,565 high set back in 2007.) A lot has changed over a year, and that includes the factors that have supported the recovery in the equity market:

• The VIX was 50, not 17.
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 2.9%, not 3.7%.
• The budget deficit was $900 billion, not $1.5 trillion.
• Baa spreads were 540bps and tightening, not 260bps and widening.
• The market was 20% ‘cheap’ as per Shiller P/E ratio, not 25% overvalued.
• The DXY was at 90 and depreciating, not 80 and appreciating.
• Oil was at $47/bbl, not $82/bbl (we can see $80+ crude being good for the Saudi market; we’re not sure how it fits in bullishly to the S&P call).
• Equity PM cash ratios were at 5.5%, not 3.6%.
• Market Vane bullish sentiment was at 32%, not 53%.
• Real GDP was -6.4%, not +5.9%; and the ISM was 36, not 57 (we were in the basement looking up, not on the rooftop looking down).

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Ron Rebner |98.27.187.xxx |2010-03-09 12:04:25 Volume seems to be increasing. This would be a great day for the market to turn south but I'm not holding my breath. ReplyQuote 0 0

Mars  - PartyCrasher |74.87.233.xxx |2010-03-09 13:11:32 If this party can hold up into approx. 1:35--1:40EST, I'll have my finger on the trigger to try a SP500 short for the rest of the afternoon. ReplyQuote 0 0

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