God's Compass for our Heart and Mind

Mars - Fulcrum Hypothesis remains on-track

|2011-10-27 19:48:29

(the following was last posted JUNE 26, 2011)
FULCRUM HYPOTHESIS MODEL
The model is based on an SP500 weekly chart. While I have been following it sporadically since it's creation, because it continues to track well, I'm now giving it more attention. As previously posted, the week ending FEB 11 the model projected the SP500 would move laterally for the next 16 weeks with 2 to 3 choppy peaks above the 1320 level. Then the week ending APR 29 was projected to put in the final high. The week ending MAY 27 was projected to decline and challenge the 1280 level. Finally, the week ending JUN 10 was projected to kiss the 1320 level goodbye a final time before the big move down initiated.
Last week I completed the calculations for the projected turns going forward. With the caveat that the model can stop working at any time, or the time/price coefficient can change from it's current value, the following are the time and price level projections:

Week ending APR 29 2011 = TOP
Week ending AUG 5--12 2011 = sub 1120 = Wave 1 down
Week ending NOV 4--11 2011 = 1150 to 1200 = Wave 2 up
Week ending MAY 18 2012 = 700 to 800 = Wave 3 down
Week ending JUL 6 2012 = 800 = Wave 4 up
Week ending AUG 3--10 2012 = sub 700 = Wave 5 down
Best of luck to all.
mars

Mars - Tracking the Kress Cycles

|2011-10-27 19:49:57

Clif Droke on the the Cycle Master Samuel J. "Bud" Kress
In order to gain some perspective, let’s take a look at the overall economic situation from the standpoint of the long-term Kress cycles. The destruction of the U.S. economy has occurred in at least three stages – with a fourth to occur later this year. The fifth and final stage should be well underway by no later than 2013. The entire 5-stage cyclical process by which the economy is broken down can be likened to a storm, gaining in intensity with each passing stage. The final forthcoming stage can be called the Kress Cycle Tsunami. We’ll break down these five stages in the report that follows.
The first stage of the gradual economic breakdown occurred in late 1999/early 2000. At that time the 30-year component of the long-term Kress super cycle peaked. It resulted in the demise of the great 1990s bull market in stocks. The Internet stock bubble which held sway at the time imploded and the white hot ‘90s economy was drastically cooled off. Along with it the era of the strong dollar and cheap commodities came to a crashing halt.
In an effort to revive the economy and stimulate the financial market after the 2000 Internet stock crash, the Federal Reserve embarked on an easy money campaign in which the dollar was devalued and interest rates were driven to levels not seen since 1945. The result of this cheap money scheme was a massive housing bubble along with an economic resurgence.
But something hap...

Mars - conclusion to Kress

|2011-10-27 19:52:02

But something happened to upset the revival. The Kress 20-year cycle peaked in late 2004, which removed a major support from the economy. It also dealt a fatal blow to the real estate bubble. Five years after the real estate market collapsed a bottom has yet to be made. This was Stage Two of the developing Kress cycle super storm.
The economy suffered its next major setback in 2008 when the Kress 12-year cycle peaked. The credit crash that came later that year was a direct consequence of the real estate collapse and was exacerbated by the peaking of the 12-year cycle. This was Stage Three of the economy’s destruction.
Stage Four of the Kress cycle storm will occur around the fourth quarter of this year (2011) when the 6-year cycle peaks. You’ll notice by now that pattern has been established: each time a major yearly cycle peaks, the economy falters and we arrive one step closer to the eventual Kress Cycle Tsunami when then all the yearly cycles comprising the 120-year Grand Super cycle will be in the final “hard down” phase. This event hasn’t been seen since the 1890s, which catalyzed the industrial depression of that decade and saw the transformation of the U.S. from a primarily agrarian economy to an industrial one.
The financial market rebound of 2009-2011 was made possible both by an aggressive easy money policy by the Fed as well as by the peaking phase of the 6-year cycle (the previous 6-year cycle bottomed in late 2008). Fed Chairman Bernanke caught a h...

Mars - Final Part 3 of Kress

|2011-10-27 19:53:12

Fed Chairman Bernanke caught a huge break by virtue of the peaking 6-year cycle, otherwise it’s doubtful his monetary policy would have succeeded in reviving the financial market for as long as it did. Bernanke won’t be so lucky once the 6-year cycle peaks, however. As we head closer to the fateful 2013-2014 period when the economic headwinds should be at their fiercest, any attempt at reviving the economy through currency manipulation will almost certainly fail.
The fifth and final stage of the unfolding Kress cycle storm should be seen at some point in 2012 once the residual momentum from the current recovery has long since dissipated and none of the major long-term cycles are in the ascending phase. Starting next year, every component of the 120-year cycle (the lowly 4-year cycle being the only exception) will be down.
As we continue to experience the unfolding of the various stages of the brewing Kress cycle storm it will be especially important to watch the housing market for clues as to whether deflationary forces are increasing. The economic crisis started with real estate and it stands to reason that housing will be probably be the first major economic sector to bottom out after the 2014 Grand Super cycle bottoms. From now until then, there remains a lot more downside potential in real estate.

Thursday Daily Devotional by Dr. Charles Stanley

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